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Monday, December 07, 2009

What's at stake in Copenhagen?

This.



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Friendly fire 07/12/09

- The risks of citizen and amateur journalists in war areas.

- Airbus A400M to take off. Finally.

- India concerned over China, Pakistan military "nexus".

- Israel's pro-settlement soldiers worry leaders.

- So, where the hell is bin Laden?


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Ahead of Copenhagen summit...

Some really useful data and graphics on carbon emissions by country since the 80's. Data published by the Guardian Data Blog.




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Copenhagen challenges

The Danish capital will host from today and for two weeks a UN summit to tackle some action on carbon emissions. A total of 192 countries will attend a meeting that rises as much hope and expectations as doubts and questions.

With Kyoto protocol formally dead for everyone -some because consider it too few; some because never even started working on it- Copenhagen looks like the perfect opportunity to encourage a new green deal worldwide. But the meeting comes just after a conference in Barcelona that didn’t resolve anything. To that we need to add the questions rose following the leak of several email correspondence between some investigators that undermined the results of the global warming studies -and therefore, the whole thing around it.

But hope comes by the hand of the main actors -including Obama. Brazil, the US, China and India have promised each important CO2 emission cuts from now to 2020. Australia, Russia, Japan, Canada and other developed countries have followed them. Europe is the A student, ahead of everyone else, and has promised a further reduction by 30%.

But all those promises are worthless without action, as Kyoto has shown. Only Europe has achieved the agreed goals, and with internal differences. Italy, Spain and, surprisingly, the host country of this summit, Denmark, have struggled to meet the requirements and are not likely to do it in a near future.

In general, developed countries offer cuts between an 8% and 14% of the CO2 emissions. Even that is not enough. Most scientists claim for a need to meet a reduction of a 25% to 40% in the developed countries to avoid any serious problems by half this century. And those weak compromises not only are not enough, but also will be difficult to agree.

Everyone seems to agree on major issues. Maldives’ cabinet, an archipelago nation seriously endangered by the rise of sea levels, held a meeting under the sea in October to illustrate the urgency of the matter. Last week, the Nepalese government did the same in Mount Everest, helped with winter clothes and oxygen, to rise awareness over the glacial meltdown.

But it is something to agree on the obvious and something different to act in deep to avoid it. When the details about what to do appear is when discrepancies come to the surface too. The countries of the so called Umbrella group (USA, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Russia) are asking for more compromises from the developing countries, something the latter and the EU oppose to.

Even in the way of controlling the emissions are disagreements. Some countries, like the US, want a carbon market where countries or even companies can trade over a fixed total of allowed emissions. This way, if a country -or company- doesn’t pollute as much as it’s allowed to do, it could sell that extra allowance to another country in need to pollute more; never over passing the total already fixed. For the EU, however, this is too complex and difficult to control and regulate, so they are opting for a carbon tax.

But as if only with internal disputes wasn’t enough, there are also some countries that don’t even agree to cut the dependency from fossil fuels. Not at least for free. The OPEC countries -oil producers- are asking for a compensation for the revenues they will lose if a new green deal is reached to cut carbon emissions. Some may say it is selfish to think that way, but for many of the OPEC countries, oil is the biggest contributor to their GDP, counting as much as for half of it -or even more- in some cases.

Anyway, whatever happens in the end in Copenhagen, leaders meeting there should have something clear in their minds: as Kyoto teached us, promises are nothing without action. Whatever they agree to do must be done, doesn’t matter how few it is. The world cannot afford another failed protocol.




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Sunday, December 06, 2009

Iraqi shoe-thrower finds his match

I assume you remember the Iraqi journalist that threw a pair of shoes at George W. Bush last year, starting a new way of protest (old for the Arab world) worldwide. Well, he had a taste of his own medicine last Tuesday when he nearly got beaned by a shoe thrower at a news conference in Paris.

The identity of the new shoe-thrower -and his motivation- weren't immediately clear, but he appeared to be an Iraqi. It was not known if the intruder was a journalist or just pretended to be one to attend the news conference at a center for foreign reporters.

What it's for sure is that Muntadhar al-Zeidi has as good reflexes as Bush, because he too ducked and the shoe hit the wall behind him. And he has good sense of humor too:

"He stole my technique," al-Zeidi later quipped.




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Friday, December 04, 2009

Say "cheeeese"!




This past September, when nearly all the world’s leaders were in New York for a meeting of the United Nations, Platon, a staff photographer for the New Yorker, set up a tiny studio off the floor of the General Assembly, and tried to hustle as many of them in front of his lens as possible. The project involved months of work. While immersed on it, some as Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu fell on the main rule that rulers have asked their photographers and painters for centuries: “Make me look good”.

Results finally are here. I don’t know if Mr. Netanyahu will be pleased with his picture, but there are indeed a few interesting points in the poster. Like for example, seeing together Gordon Brown (UK) and Brian Cowen (Ireland), who look like brothers. And in fact, even their political careers are very similar: both are in a shaky chair after substituting a troubled former leader, and coming from managing the Economics portfolio.

Standing with Cowen, just below is the Czech president Václav Klaus. Surprisingly, it’s not the only time the Czech has been behind Cowen; he signed the Lisbon Treaty -introduced the past Tuesday- only after Ireland passed it. The third one in the mess of Lisbon, Polish President Lech Kaczynski, is also around close to them.

But that’s not the only funny relationship. Ahmadinejad (Iran) and Chávez (Venezuela) are really close too. The same as Netanyahu (Israel), who is on the right of Obama (USA); left for us seeing the poster. Of course, Berlusconi is in the area where all the women in the collage are. Odinga (Kenya) on the other hand, is more reluctant of Kagame (Rwanda), who he observes with caution. And finally, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero (Spain) only needs a beret with a red star on his head to look like ‘Che’ Guevara.

The original poster with more info, here.



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Thursday, December 03, 2009

Outcasts' land

Three Somalian ministers died and two were severely injured today in an explosion in a hotel in Mogadishu while attending a graduation ceremony. There is no better way to illustrate the degradation of the stability of the UN backed government than that. A government that is only capable of controlling a few packs of the capital, and thanks to the blue berets from the African Union.

A few months ago, when David Axe was reporting from Somalia, he saw a huge tank in the gate of one of the Government compounds. Intrigued, Axe asked one of the commanders of the African peacekeepers, captain Paddy Ankunda, what was the T-55 for. “Not for being used”, Ankunda replied, “but for let the people know we could use them”. Only a month after that they had to use it. And again, only a month after, nine peacekeepers were killed in a double suicide attack, including a Burundian top commander.

Piracy has attracted the attention to the region but it is just a result of the outlaw chaos that reigns in the country area. It wouldn’t exist if a strong government was in place. But the UN backed cabinet is too weak to even defend themselves, as stated today’s attack, not to mention to defend their coastline. A new Somalian Navy is under formation, mirroring the structure of the “Sons of Iraq”, but so far it’s only a few hundred ex-fishermen -and ex-pirates- on the UN payroll sailing on skiffs.

But in Somalia, pirates and the government aren’t the only ones fighting. The al-Sahbab Islamist group, linked to al-Qaeda, is trying to make of Somalia -and Yemen- a regional hub for Islamists. So far, unsuccessfully. Somalia is too remote, too isolated and too xenophobic to become a haven like Afghanistan was. But thanks to the lack of government of any kind, they aren’t disturbed but for occasional skirmishes from Ethiopian troops. And that’s why they are calling for reinforcements. One of al-Qaeda’s most prominent militants, Abu Mansour al-Amriki (the American), lives already there. At least, they don’t like pirates either.

The end of the piracy in the Gulf of Aden is not only in the ocean, but in comprehensive strategies that include also action to support the UN peacekeepers in Mogadishu and the rest of Somalia. The UN has already authorized missions on Somalian soil to pursuit pirates and the government itself has called for support from others countries. Some would say they even begged for an invasion. But with things as they are right now in A'stan, it's unlikely someone else but the African Union will engage the problem. And they are already almost overran.




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Better?

A few months ago I talked in this blog about the new impulse for the Palestinian economy in the West Bank, simbolized by Nablus rebirth. I'm not the only one seeing this, but, then, why not more publicity about it?



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Wednesday, November 25, 2009

More troops, but still no defined strategy

President Obama announced yesterday he’s determined to “finish the job” in Afghanistan. Cool. Now, just define what means “job” and “finish” and then all that will worth something. Until then, it’s all words but strategy in Afghanistan is, so far, sinking fast. And in the lack of ideas, the White House is going back to the traditional solution: more force.

Next Tuesday Obama is expected to unveil -for the first time in prime time- a new boost to the troops on the ground in Afghanistan. The place to announce it will be perfect: West Point military academy. In fact, hours and hours of study and discussions are behind Obama’s decision. The options were between 15,000 and 40,000 extra soldiers. Finally, after several weeks of guessing, almost everyone has narrowed down that number to something between 30,000 and 35,000.

What doesn’t seem to change is the strategy for the war. Even Gen. Stanley McChrystal already warned about that in his timid report from August, little has been done. Karzai is still in the chair and, despite his promises to tackle corruption, it’s unlikely that will happen in his term, let alone in one year as McChrystal would have desired.

But yet, more troops are also needed. But what for? According to McClatchy papers, 23,000 soldiers would go to combat and support operations; 7,000 to develop, strengthen and co-ordinate the southern headquarters; with the rest 4,000 effectives destined to train the Afghan army and police. This increase of troops in Central Asia would mean, according to Spencer Ackerman, the deployment of almost every available battalion in operative theaters, leaving just a few back at home available for duty (see links below).

According to another report from The Washington Independent, in December 2009, a total of 50,600 soldiers and 24,000 National Guards will be available for deployment. The rest will be either in Iraq or Afghanistan or resting back from a tour in a combat zone. In January, those numbers would drop to 12,400 -of which most of them from heavy units (cavalry and tanks)- boots available to deploy in case there is a problem in, let’s say, Korea.

However, it seems yet insufficient, especially regarding the number of trainers. If NATO wants to accomplish its promise of doubling the numbers of the Afghan army, from the present 94,000 effectives to 250,000; the General in charge of the training mission -Lt. Gen Bill Caldwell- will need much more than 4,000 trainers.

As for the rest of the thirty-something thousand troops, the New York Times suggests that 10,000 soldiers could be deployed to Kandahar; 5,000 to Helmand and another 5,000 to the east of the country. His job won’t be easy.

Main target will be to stabilize the south and, once that’s done, recover the control of the rest of the country. Time for that, just until next year’s autumn. McCrhystal warns of it clearly in his August report: “Failure to gain the initiative and reverse insurgent momentum in the near-term (next 12 months) -while Afghan security capacity matures- risks an outcome where defeating the insurgency is no longer possible”.

As if those guys didn’t have enough pressure over their shoulders already.


(Available units from the National Guard and the Army now and in the close-mid term)

Afghan National Army soldiers practice firing during a NATO training.
Photo: U.S. Army Sgt. Matthew Moeller, 5th Mobile Public Affairs Detachment


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Monday, November 23, 2009

Definition of "scary"




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Thursday, November 19, 2009

Friendly fire 19/10/09

Going green to be greener.

Iran to Russia: where are our missiles?

NK boosts its special forces.

In honor to Jordan: no more 23s.

Sarah Palin still on the frontpages. Literally.

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1983


Thanks to the blog Checkpoint Jerusalem, this week I discovered the short movie “1983”. The plot goes around what would happen if before getting into a movie you should pass a security check as those from Ben Gurion international airport. When the reporter Dion Nissenbaum asked the director why the title was “1983”, he answered: “What comes after 1983?” The short movie’s action itself, I’m sure it will be familiar to anyone who has gone through one of these random checkpoints.

Because, let’s face it, Ben Gurion controls are desperating. I remember the case of an old Russian Jew who left Israel swearing to me he will never come back again via the airport. I know as well cases of people being interrogated for hours -and consequently, losing their flights- and going through latex-gloved searches naked in separated rooms. It’s so bad that in the hotels they recommend you to give yourself a reasonable margin of hours in the airport before the flight is scheduled.

For journalists it is even worse. In my last visit to Ben Gurion airport, a French freelance photographer who was about five spaces behind me got suddenly surrounded by five security guards that started to ask him every kind of questions. His Press-labeled jacket and his cameras didn’t help him to pass unnoticed.

It’s obvious that journalists are screened harder because of our job. And trying to get unnoticed not always works. Searches for residual explosives in the clothes or the questions about if we know any Palestinian or we have travelled to other countries in the region are common. That’s why it’s not good to have your Nablus, Jenin or Ramallah sources in your agenda or your phone. Also, the trip from the security check to the plane is usually made with an -unwanted- escort.

Luckily, sometimes it gives you the chance to have a good time.

Once, in the baggage control check, my cover as tourist got blast. The beautiful girl examining my backpack didn’t believe me when she saw my cameras, lenses, laptop and all kind of notebooks with notes. Instantly she made me take all my things out of the backpack and the suitcase. All of it. Even what was on my clothes' pockets ended over the table.

When she reached the lateral pocket of my backpack, and started to put everything over the table, the fun started. Several condoms, almost a full pack -I hadn’t time to use as many as I wanted-, started to come out. As they were coming out, the girl’s face was turning more and more red and she was saying lower and lower her shameful “I’m sorries”. Of course, all that was provoking a more and more wider joker smile on me. With more shame on her side than on mine, the screening ended up much sooner than expected, putting as fast as she could everything back in my suitcase.

I was lucky, but it’s not always like that. The official reason for the screenings is that it is for our own security. Like to avoid any bad guy putting a tic-tac bomb inside the souvenir we got from Hebron or Bethlehem. But all the process is less than charming. And after a few similar experiences, you start to question yourself if it ever works.

In fact, as Dion Nissenbaum tells, is difficult to believe Ben Gurion controls are for security reasons only. You start to think if they are not to harass the travelers -especially Arabs or journalists, among others. Or even worse; just a way to gather intelligence.

1983 from Modi on Vimeo.




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Monday, November 16, 2009

The decade in 7 minutes

From now on, we will start to see lots of videos like this one. A summary of the decade; the ten first years of the 21st century... All will be more or less the same. Here is the first one, made by Newsweek:



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Report: Situation in Lebanon getting worse

Hezbollah could be rearming for a future conflict with Israel, according to The Observer and Haaretz. The news came in just after Israel seized a cargo ship loaded with rockets and missiles, supposedly for the Shiite Lebanese militia.

“Of course we are rearming”, said in condition of anonymity a Hezbollah official to the Londoner newspaper. “We have more rockets and missiles than [we had] in 2006”, he adds. According to this same source, the Lebanese guerrilla would be expecting an attack from the south soon, if not this winter in the spring, when the ground would be hard enough to maintain the weight of the Israeli tanks. And facts are that indeed, the IDF has been moving around and concentrating forces in the north of the country.

But for now, the main target for Israel is still Iran. However, that doesn’t take Lebanon out of the table. Some analyst, suggest that it even make it more likely to be attacked. Initial intelligence reports pointed out that any successful operation in Iran should be started with an attack on Hezbollah, to diminish their ability to disrupt normal life in Israel northern territories. Now with the Shiite militiamen in the concentration government, that threat is seen in Israel as even greater.

Last war in Lebanon was in 2006, when Hezbollah fighters infiltrated in Israel and kidnapped two Jewish soldiers and the IDF counterattacked heavily. After that, the FINUL, an interim international force, was deployed in the area. But the FINUL has been recently eroded from the inside, with arguments between their members about the leadership of the mission. Spain wants to get the lead in 2010 -as agreed- but Italy, currently in charge of the mission, doesn’t seem to be keen to do so after Israel asked them to keep it.

If anything new starts, the FINUL could be between two fires and without a clear leadership in the spring. Perfect time for an attack or a provocation from any of the parts involved.

More in here.




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Extra: IAEA documents on Iran

You can find here the documents the IAEA will release soon on Iranian new Qom nuclear site.


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Monday, November 09, 2009

Down with the wall!

Today marks the 20th anniversary of the fall of the wall in Berlin. The end of the “Mauer” was also the end of an era and reshaped not only Berlin and Germany but all Europe.

Today as well in Palestine, around 300 demonstrators gathered in the town of Ni’lin to protest against a present wall, the one built in the West Bank by Israel allegedly to protect themselves against terrorist attacks. The demonstrators managed to topple one of the eight meters high concrete portions of the wall. Here is the video.




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Thursday, November 05, 2009

Friendly fire 05/10/09

- Iraq combat deaths near record low.

- After a deadly month in Pakistan, Islamabad offers Taliban bounties.

- Tehran set to lose status as Iran capital.

- An excellent data collection about the piracy around the world: all the attacks by pirates in 2009 (raw data)

- Inside the Army’s Far-Out Acid Tests. Dude, that's awesome...




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And here it goes again...

Once again, a ship loaded of guns seized by Israel is on the frontpage. But this time the Jewish country is not accusing Iran of being the end of the trail, but the beginning. Israeli commandos seized yesterday a freighter off the coast of Ciprus, in international waters. The cargo ship was loaded with small guns and rockets that Israeli authorities say were destined to Hezbollah. Of course, immediately the domino effect invaded the Middle East.

Israel accused Hezbollah of being the final destination of the cargo. Hezbollah denied it. Israel accuses Iran of being the ones who sent it -and just in case, accuses too Syria of being the receptors. Both denied it. Israeli PM, Binyamin Netanyahu, accuses Iran of crimes of war -how lightly Israel accuses others of that and how hard is to get them to recognize their own crimes- and sees the guns as a new wild card against Tehran. The ayatollahs tell Bibi to fuck off and get a life. And here it goes again.

In fact, many Arab commentators have said that what Israel is doing is actually just a diversion to distract the attention from the Goldstone report. But this comes as well at the same time that Hamas test fires a rocket capable of hitting Tel Aviv. The rockets are, according to Israel, a technology transfer from Iran and Syria. And there, there it goes yet again.

Truth is that Israel is not a saint, but neither are Iran nor Syria. And the most frightening of all is that all of that -Goldstone report, arms smuggling- might be true.

Rockets seized by Israel
Photo: Tsafrir Abayov/AP


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Remember, remember...

...the fifth of November.

Never better than today, fifth of November, to comment the polemic surrounding the BNP in the UK right now. The British National Party (BNP), a far-right party whose baselines are many “anti-“ policies (anti-Islamist, anti-homosexual, anti-immigration) had last week its fifteen minutes of glory and a few more in the British public television. The program was watched by over 8 million viewers and critics poured over the BBC soon after the broadcasting.

It all started way before the interview to BNP’s leader, Nick Griffin, was aired. Several anti-fascist protesters even breached the security of the BBC trying to cancel the program. Politicians from all the political spectra protested energically on how the public broadcaster could give time to a party that has been accused of racist, homophobic and even of being connected to Nazi and paramilitary organizations.

None of that stopped Griffin’s train. The BNP leader had his time to explain why denies the Holocaust, why he is against Europe and why he doesn’t consider London an English city anymore because of the immigration -he may be right on that.

Results to the interview came immediately. Apart from an ego boost for Nick Griffin -as if he needed it-, BNP increased considerably the intention of vote. In a survey carried over just after the program, a 4% said they would "definitely" consider backing the party, 3% who would "probably" consider it, and 15% who said they were "possible" BNP voters.

To put some perspective to that, let’s say that the BNP had in 1995 a 0.7% of the votes, but has had an ascending trajectory since then -last summer they got their first ever seats in the European elections. From the party office, they say that the night of the interview they had a record high in recruitment, with over 3,000 people who called to register in their lists.

That’s why, before this perspective, I cannot pass without remembering the fifth of November and V’s speech in the film “V for vendetta”.




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Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Spain boosts their soldiers’ safety in A’stan

The Spanish MP of Defense, Carme Chacón, presented today the new RG-31 Nyala that will equip Spanish soldiers in Afghanistan. The armored truck arrives late but at least arrives. It’s more than what British soldiers can say. The handling of the first vehicles was delayed for several months while a huge internal debate grew up in the public opinion surrounding the security of the troops the country has deployed in Central Asia.

In fact, the RG-31 is an old demand from Spanish officials. The BMR used until now, although heavily modernized, have three decades behind are all but inefficient against the IEDs used by the Taliban. The Nyala (gazelle in Afrikaans), however, is able to resist the impact of two anti-tank mines’ simultaneous explosion.

But that doesn’t equals to Ms. Chacón’s words, describing the RG-31 as the “most modern and safer” vehicle in the ISAF mission. Sure, the modifications added by the Israeli company Rafael (an automated firing turret) gives it some advantage, but the most difficult operational issue on these vehicles is the driving, as they are really easy to overturn. And if practice is required, then the Americans, Canadians and Dutch are way ahead of the Spaniards.

As for them, their first Nyalas arrived during the last month in Quala-i-Now, where they will operate. Last weekend two new vehicles completed the first unit. However, few less are expected for now. Only 20 more will arrive until the end of the year. The rest of the 61 total RG-31 that Spain will deploy will arrive in March, with the refreshment troops.

Of course, with the deployment of these vehicles, all together with the increase of the forces up to 1,000 soldiers, will become a greater responsibility. Americans, British, Canadian and Dutch soldiers were having until now the biggest weight in combat operations. The rest of the ISAF members -including Spain- did few more than reconstruction missions and hardly patrolled far away from their bases. However, the expansion of the insurgency to areas before considered safe (like the north and the west; ask the Germans about this) will make these nations to rethink the strategy.

The trucks will come then in the perfect timing for the Spanish troops. Of course, the PR operation sending now a few of the vehicles is not either casual. It’s expected that during the winter, insurgency will decrease near to zero. Is not that the Taliban are granting a ceasefire to the ISAF, but that Afghan roads, difficult to transit in summer, become impossible to drive in winter.

Up until the spring, we will heard press releases from NATO HQs praising for how well is working the new McChrystal’s strategy and -in Spain- how good is the new equipment and how well protects Spanish soldiers. Until the snow will melt and attacks will begin again. We will see then that few has changed. Not even Spanish politicians addressing the war in Afghanistan as what it is: a war.

Canadian RG-31 in A'Stan


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Monday, November 02, 2009

Obama an the secret warehouse

So this is warehouse shown in Indiana Jones IV where the US keeps the Arc and all those treasures. I guess.



Via the White House flickr account.


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Friday, October 30, 2009

Friendly fire 30/10/09

- Iraq wants to get into the nuclear club. Yeah, that’s right. Not Iran this time, Iraq.

- Micheletti and Zelaya achieve an agreement for an exit to Honduras coup.

- The EU gets an only strong voice against climate change. Well, sorta.

- Israeli envoy to the UN says that the Human Rights council has give its back to the same values it defends. I think it’s something about Goldstone report, but not in the same way as everyone else aknowledges it.

- Medvedev opposes to the rehabilitation of uncle Joe. Traitor! He should be executed…



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The blockade strategy

When the other day the IDF uploaded in its twitter account this unusual tweet it surprised me. The entrance of more than a hundred trucks in a day PLUS fuel is not that common. Then, the office of Lieberman posted it again. In total, three similar posts in less than two days.

Taking into account the usual cheapness of the Israelis when letting trucks crossing Erez, sending 300 in less than two days -more than double the usual- awoke something in me. There had to be something going on. That led me into the BBC, who was informing about the permission from Israeli authorities to get 130,000 tones of cement into Gaza. That was even weirdest. Was the vegetative Ariel Sharon dictating the politics in Tel Aviv now? Was Israel going to lift the shoe off the Palestinians?

Not at all. Checkpoint Jerusalem blog had the answer. It’s not the product of an ethylic intoxication of some Israeli official but an operation that has the beneplacit of Israel: the reconstruction of Erez crossing.

Of course, Israel is in this adventure with Hamas only because it benefits them too. The blockade itself doesn’t seem to disappear anytime soon. Actually, quite the contrary. Israel is preparing the closing of the main fuel terminal that supplies Gaza. Million and a half Palestinians depend on that plant for everything, from gas for cooking to fuel for the only power plant in the strip.

The plans of Israel are to habilitate a new plant in Kerem Shalom, but the new installations won’t be finish any time soon and according to human rights groups, it lacks the capacity to supply all the Gazan population. Not exactly the same for Israel, where not only is thought the new plant is more than enough but also some are arguing that the blockade should be tightened because is not enough:


Recently, an Israeli government official was boasting that military surveillance showed that Gaza markets were full and teeming with goods. He pointed it out to suggest that Israeli restrictions were not harming Gaza.

Of course, he deftly neglected to mention that most of the goods found in Gaza markets these days don't come from Israel. They come through the dangerous network of illegal smuggling tunnels to Egypt...


The fact of the people in Gaza having a shortage of everything -and the few they have is thanks to the tunnels- is already worrying. People saying the blockade should be increased, is more than worrying. But what I definitely don’t understand is how the hell that insufficiency to “harm Gaza” fits into Israeli speeches about the blockade being aimed against Hamas and not the general Palestinian population.



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Halloween special

Vampires. Those little suckers.



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Non stop

Last 48 hours chaos reigned again in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In the north, an attack on a UN guest house in the centric Sherpur neighbourhood of Kabul ended up with at least 13 casualties, six of them workers of the organization.

The incident affected too several near embassies, among them the Spanish embassy, where some bullets got into the staff rooms. This is just another brick on the wall that makes more nervous American allies. Public opinions at home are more and more difficult to please. In the last NATO meeting, European members pledged to hang on there, but any increase of troops was took out of the table. “Guarantees of stability”, ask sarkozy and Merkel before committing with more soldiers. And of course, the fact of Karzai’s brother being as corrupt as his relative, plus a drug lord and in the CIA payroll is not a stability proof.

Pakistan, continues the push against the Taliban in South Waziristan at the same time that a bomb exploded in the middle of Peepal Mandi market. It was the worst terrorist attack since 2007 with more than 90 casualties and over 200 wounded.

The attack, by the way, was a few hours after American Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton landed in Islamabad to hold several meetings with local authorities. She insisted once again Pakistan is not alone in this fight. In fact, this week we knew via LA Times that American drones are helping the Pakistani army in their offensive in South Waziristan. Of course, both the US and Pakistani governments quickly denied that. And reasons for it are clear.

Since the beginning of the drone wars, the US and Pakistan have had a don’t ask-don’t tell policy. This way, Pakistani government could criticize occasionally the Americans in a wash up over the Americans in order to maintain the precarious balance inside the country.

But everything has its limits, and that same population is starting to grow tired of the Predators. They have good reasons. Since 2006, it’s calculated that around 350 civilians have dead in drone attacks. Some other numbers are higher, as much as double that. It’s anyway a high amount. Even just one could be a lot. Ask a tribal clan leader, and he could tell you this.

Now, maybe international legality will be on their side too. The UN has warned that drone attacks may be out of the frame of humanitarian rights. Of course, that’s only a warning from the UN, and all of us know the effect of that. Plus I unsure who would be more benefited from a halt in the drone attacks, the US or the Taliban. Both desire to continue it. For America, is a great way of fighting without risking lives or having to extend a complex network inside Pakistan. For the Taliban, is the perfect propaganda weapon and a great recruitment method.

Predator drone
Photo: Doug Pritchard




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Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Second act in Afghanistan.

In the end, there will be a second round in Afghanistan. First one has been the slowest counting in the world. Two months, to be precise, since last 20th of August the Afghans voted. And yet, we don’t know for sure what will happen next.

All the actors playing on the stage performed as it was expected from them in the big day. The UN even was standing besides Hamid Karzai until almost the very end, when they couldn’t cover anymore the fraud. Because it was huge. Almost a quarter of Karzai’s votes were finally declared null, and it looks like if they were still just a few of the total.

In the end, this is all makeup. No one wanted a second round. Nor in Kabul, nor in Washington. It’s just make it longer. The now official results are as false as the first ones or as the ones we will get if a coalition government doesn’t avoid a second poll. Karzai’s opponent, Abdullah Abdullah has already offered for that, knowing he has no chance to win.

Because in fact, this elapsed ending isn’t a solution for the Afghans or the governments in muddy waters in Central Asia. It is just a play for the public opinion. The problem is that, once decided that a new rerun will take place, there are a few things to be sorted out now. Like how to do it. I’m talking about logistics.

At first, the hypothetical second round was planned for the 7th of November. That’s in three weeks. And after the endless recount process, achieve that agenda looks impossible. The preparations for the first round were going along for months, and that with the benefit of a good (or at least better) weather. Afghan roads are difficult to transit in summer, even more during the winter. At least, if the Taliban follow the same modus operandis as previous years, we won’t have to worry about their attacks. In winter they simply hibernate.

Someone who seems to be hibernating too is Obama. He’s been thinking about sending more troops to Afghanistan for six weeks now. Meanwhile, the casualties are given by the local allies. Pakistan started an offensive in Swat valley last weekend that has already claimed two dozen soldiers’ lives.

But as usual, the ones suffering most are the civilians on both sides of the Af-Pak border. Even from the hands of their liberators. On Monday, a new report released offered numbers of civilian casualties in Pakistan for the drone wars. They are an estimated 320. It’s a third of the total. The Pentagon estimates that drones have killed between 750 and 1,000 people since 2006; 20 of them top Al Qaeda and Taliban militants. The rest are militant soldiers and civilians. Make the maths. And that’s only for the southern neighbour.



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21st century air travel

What happens when the Kenya Airways computers go down for several consecutive hours at Entebbe airport in Uganda?

You board your flight with this rather ridiculous-looking piece of paper:



Via Somewhere in Africa.

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Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Really sorry

For the last few days I’ve been unable to update my blog. I am really sorry for that. A badass cold and work at the office –the one who actually pays the bills- kept me busy enough to do anything else. But here I am again.

Thanks for staying.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Friendly fire 12/10/09

- NK tests five short range missiles and requests everybody to stay outta their Eastern territorial waters until the 20th.

- SK presses the gas for the purchase of new jets.

- The hardest decision for this year (after Obama's Nobel): Economics Nobel. And the one who messed the less was...

- There is no small foe.

- About to getting divorced? How sounds a trip to Malaysia?


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Another weekend in hell

This weekend has been tough for Pakistan. Tougher than usual, I mean. Several attacks resulted in the death of dozens of civilians. Probably the worst one was the suicide car bomber who targeted a market in Alpuri, near the Swat valley. At least 40 people died.

The attack reminds us that the Swat valley is far from recovered. In fact, the TTP is still able to hit hard and spread quickly. That’s why some analysts are suggesting that however tempting might sound to overhand the control from American contractors to local ones, it is not a wise move for now.

However, as tragic as 40 bodies can be, it’s even more worrying the sensation of insecurity that this brings. Alpuri is supposed to be a safe area under Pakistani control, the place from where the assault on the Swat valley was launched. But truth shows us something radically different. Not only last weekend. Two years ago, the Taliban made an offensive and gained the control of Alpuri police station, for Pakistan’s Army’s shame.

But if it is about shame on the Pakistani Army, then it cannot get bigger than an almost successful assault on their general headquarters in Rawalpindi. During the one-day siege of Pakistan’s “Pentagon”, 19 people died and some other 40 were held hostages for several hours until they were freed in a raid. The attack, apparently, was supposed to be just a diversion to relief the Taliban fighters in the Swat Valley.

The problem in Pakistan is far from solved and it won’t get a solution anytime soon. In fact, it threatens to spread through the region. Israel embassy has issued a warning to all its citizens to avoid travelling into India, for the increasing risk of Mumbai-style bombings.

And let’s face it, early warning the Taliban that the army is about to attack them won’t deter them either.





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After clash season...

A few months after the clashes in Tehran and Urumqi, first sentences to those detained then are now arisen. And they aren’t good news. In fact, nine people have been sentenced to death in the two countries. The motivation for both clashes was different, but the repression and the punishment don’t vary at all.

In the country of the Ayatollahs, at least three people have been sentenced to death. High concerns surround these sentences, especially because is unsure how the testimonies that conducted to them were obtained. Amnesty International and other groups have asked for more transparency in the whole process -with little or no response from Tehran.

The concerns grow when someone looks at the figures given by the government and the ones obtained by other groups. From the two dozen deaths that the government accounts to the two hundred that some organizations count, there are a lot of people missing in between. And for the families of those officially missing, or now under trial, the fear of the worst is always there.

Fear is precisely what many analysts think Ahmadinajad’s government is trying to achieve. By making an example of them, some say, Iranian’s government is trying to silence the opposition movement. And the three current death sentences may be just the beginning. The voices asking for more blood have long been heard since even before the beginning of the conflict.

In China at least the numbers are known. 197 killed and more than 1,600 injured. The controversy is not that much about how many died in the clashes but about how many of them were Han and how many Uighur. That about those already dead. About the ones now sentenced for that, six of them have received death penalties while another one got a life sentence. The names of all of them suggest that they are all Uighur.

Death penalty around the world

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Friday, October 09, 2009

Spy Games in Iran

Nothing is easy when Iran gets in the middle of it. If last week we were told that Ahmadinejad was in fact a Jew, now Iran accuses the US and Saudi Arabia of kidnapping one of his most important scientists in his nuclear program. Let me express my doubts about the first -Ahmadinejad a Jew? Sure, like Hitler a gay- and my curiosity for the second issue…

Here a video from Al Jazeera on it:



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Obama superstar

Like if anything else was necessary to elevate Obama to the heavens, now he has been awarded with the Nobel Peace Prize. The coronation of his Highness Obama has had more to do with the canonization of a (laic) saint than with the recognition to his achievements. That’s why everybody is asking why. And why now.

Because let’s face it. Obama may have promised a new world, but little of that has been unveiled for now. The White House has done small gestures to break with their precedent. It has been, for example, the first time the US has condemned a coup de état made by the right and the army in Latin America. Also, tortures and Guantanamo issues are slowly getting better. But as for the rest, all we have are just promises. The general opinion is that the committee in Oslo has decided it betting for his future achievements. But how easy will he get it?

Obama has promised a cut in the nukes, and this is probably the easiest task of all. The Russians are willing to do it, especially because they have already problems to maintain their current stock. But a hypothetical reduction of the two superpowers arsenals wouldn’t have an immediate effect on the world’s stability, quite the contrary: everything would be the same, with more countries like China, closer to equalize the power of Russia and the USA.

The American president has also promised too a new era for the Middle East, but so far the achievements are minimum. His speeches were great, no doubt to that. But far from freezing the settlement construction in the West Bank, he might have to counter a peak in the hostilities. The increasing clashes in Jerusalem plus the outrage after PA’s decision to postpone the vote on Goldstone report -suspectedly in exchange for a permit to Wattaniya mobile operator to start in business- have made the situation way worse than what it was in 2008. Some Israeli media are even predicting a new Intifada.

But the biggest problem for Obama will be Afghanistan. Leaving already Iraq, the now known as the “Obama war” will take yet too much blood and sweat from the ISFOR to develop results. And that outcome will be most likely what will measure Obama’s performance in office back in History. But for now, he has nothing.

His speech writer, however, should have been awarded with the Literature Nobel Prize.

Barack Obama
Photo: Jonas Karlsson

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Thursday, October 08, 2009

Red rules

A compilation of newspapers' frontpages of the day after the big day in China. Red rules. Via GuerraEterna, via Danwei.




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Are you afraid? Well, this works in that way. First you do what scares you and it's later when you get the courage
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