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Friday, October 30, 2009

Friendly fire 30/10/09

- Iraq wants to get into the nuclear club. Yeah, that’s right. Not Iran this time, Iraq.

- Micheletti and Zelaya achieve an agreement for an exit to Honduras coup.

- The EU gets an only strong voice against climate change. Well, sorta.

- Israeli envoy to the UN says that the Human Rights council has give its back to the same values it defends. I think it’s something about Goldstone report, but not in the same way as everyone else aknowledges it.

- Medvedev opposes to the rehabilitation of uncle Joe. Traitor! He should be executed…



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The blockade strategy

When the other day the IDF uploaded in its twitter account this unusual tweet it surprised me. The entrance of more than a hundred trucks in a day PLUS fuel is not that common. Then, the office of Lieberman posted it again. In total, three similar posts in less than two days.

Taking into account the usual cheapness of the Israelis when letting trucks crossing Erez, sending 300 in less than two days -more than double the usual- awoke something in me. There had to be something going on. That led me into the BBC, who was informing about the permission from Israeli authorities to get 130,000 tones of cement into Gaza. That was even weirdest. Was the vegetative Ariel Sharon dictating the politics in Tel Aviv now? Was Israel going to lift the shoe off the Palestinians?

Not at all. Checkpoint Jerusalem blog had the answer. It’s not the product of an ethylic intoxication of some Israeli official but an operation that has the beneplacit of Israel: the reconstruction of Erez crossing.

Of course, Israel is in this adventure with Hamas only because it benefits them too. The blockade itself doesn’t seem to disappear anytime soon. Actually, quite the contrary. Israel is preparing the closing of the main fuel terminal that supplies Gaza. Million and a half Palestinians depend on that plant for everything, from gas for cooking to fuel for the only power plant in the strip.

The plans of Israel are to habilitate a new plant in Kerem Shalom, but the new installations won’t be finish any time soon and according to human rights groups, it lacks the capacity to supply all the Gazan population. Not exactly the same for Israel, where not only is thought the new plant is more than enough but also some are arguing that the blockade should be tightened because is not enough:


Recently, an Israeli government official was boasting that military surveillance showed that Gaza markets were full and teeming with goods. He pointed it out to suggest that Israeli restrictions were not harming Gaza.

Of course, he deftly neglected to mention that most of the goods found in Gaza markets these days don't come from Israel. They come through the dangerous network of illegal smuggling tunnels to Egypt...


The fact of the people in Gaza having a shortage of everything -and the few they have is thanks to the tunnels- is already worrying. People saying the blockade should be increased, is more than worrying. But what I definitely don’t understand is how the hell that insufficiency to “harm Gaza” fits into Israeli speeches about the blockade being aimed against Hamas and not the general Palestinian population.



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Halloween special

Vampires. Those little suckers.



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Non stop

Last 48 hours chaos reigned again in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In the north, an attack on a UN guest house in the centric Sherpur neighbourhood of Kabul ended up with at least 13 casualties, six of them workers of the organization.

The incident affected too several near embassies, among them the Spanish embassy, where some bullets got into the staff rooms. This is just another brick on the wall that makes more nervous American allies. Public opinions at home are more and more difficult to please. In the last NATO meeting, European members pledged to hang on there, but any increase of troops was took out of the table. “Guarantees of stability”, ask sarkozy and Merkel before committing with more soldiers. And of course, the fact of Karzai’s brother being as corrupt as his relative, plus a drug lord and in the CIA payroll is not a stability proof.

Pakistan, continues the push against the Taliban in South Waziristan at the same time that a bomb exploded in the middle of Peepal Mandi market. It was the worst terrorist attack since 2007 with more than 90 casualties and over 200 wounded.

The attack, by the way, was a few hours after American Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton landed in Islamabad to hold several meetings with local authorities. She insisted once again Pakistan is not alone in this fight. In fact, this week we knew via LA Times that American drones are helping the Pakistani army in their offensive in South Waziristan. Of course, both the US and Pakistani governments quickly denied that. And reasons for it are clear.

Since the beginning of the drone wars, the US and Pakistan have had a don’t ask-don’t tell policy. This way, Pakistani government could criticize occasionally the Americans in a wash up over the Americans in order to maintain the precarious balance inside the country.

But everything has its limits, and that same population is starting to grow tired of the Predators. They have good reasons. Since 2006, it’s calculated that around 350 civilians have dead in drone attacks. Some other numbers are higher, as much as double that. It’s anyway a high amount. Even just one could be a lot. Ask a tribal clan leader, and he could tell you this.

Now, maybe international legality will be on their side too. The UN has warned that drone attacks may be out of the frame of humanitarian rights. Of course, that’s only a warning from the UN, and all of us know the effect of that. Plus I unsure who would be more benefited from a halt in the drone attacks, the US or the Taliban. Both desire to continue it. For America, is a great way of fighting without risking lives or having to extend a complex network inside Pakistan. For the Taliban, is the perfect propaganda weapon and a great recruitment method.

Predator drone
Photo: Doug Pritchard




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Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Second act in Afghanistan.

In the end, there will be a second round in Afghanistan. First one has been the slowest counting in the world. Two months, to be precise, since last 20th of August the Afghans voted. And yet, we don’t know for sure what will happen next.

All the actors playing on the stage performed as it was expected from them in the big day. The UN even was standing besides Hamid Karzai until almost the very end, when they couldn’t cover anymore the fraud. Because it was huge. Almost a quarter of Karzai’s votes were finally declared null, and it looks like if they were still just a few of the total.

In the end, this is all makeup. No one wanted a second round. Nor in Kabul, nor in Washington. It’s just make it longer. The now official results are as false as the first ones or as the ones we will get if a coalition government doesn’t avoid a second poll. Karzai’s opponent, Abdullah Abdullah has already offered for that, knowing he has no chance to win.

Because in fact, this elapsed ending isn’t a solution for the Afghans or the governments in muddy waters in Central Asia. It is just a play for the public opinion. The problem is that, once decided that a new rerun will take place, there are a few things to be sorted out now. Like how to do it. I’m talking about logistics.

At first, the hypothetical second round was planned for the 7th of November. That’s in three weeks. And after the endless recount process, achieve that agenda looks impossible. The preparations for the first round were going along for months, and that with the benefit of a good (or at least better) weather. Afghan roads are difficult to transit in summer, even more during the winter. At least, if the Taliban follow the same modus operandis as previous years, we won’t have to worry about their attacks. In winter they simply hibernate.

Someone who seems to be hibernating too is Obama. He’s been thinking about sending more troops to Afghanistan for six weeks now. Meanwhile, the casualties are given by the local allies. Pakistan started an offensive in Swat valley last weekend that has already claimed two dozen soldiers’ lives.

But as usual, the ones suffering most are the civilians on both sides of the Af-Pak border. Even from the hands of their liberators. On Monday, a new report released offered numbers of civilian casualties in Pakistan for the drone wars. They are an estimated 320. It’s a third of the total. The Pentagon estimates that drones have killed between 750 and 1,000 people since 2006; 20 of them top Al Qaeda and Taliban militants. The rest are militant soldiers and civilians. Make the maths. And that’s only for the southern neighbour.



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21st century air travel

What happens when the Kenya Airways computers go down for several consecutive hours at Entebbe airport in Uganda?

You board your flight with this rather ridiculous-looking piece of paper:



Via Somewhere in Africa.

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Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Really sorry

For the last few days I’ve been unable to update my blog. I am really sorry for that. A badass cold and work at the office –the one who actually pays the bills- kept me busy enough to do anything else. But here I am again.

Thanks for staying.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Friendly fire 12/10/09

- NK tests five short range missiles and requests everybody to stay outta their Eastern territorial waters until the 20th.

- SK presses the gas for the purchase of new jets.

- The hardest decision for this year (after Obama's Nobel): Economics Nobel. And the one who messed the less was...

- There is no small foe.

- About to getting divorced? How sounds a trip to Malaysia?


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Another weekend in hell

This weekend has been tough for Pakistan. Tougher than usual, I mean. Several attacks resulted in the death of dozens of civilians. Probably the worst one was the suicide car bomber who targeted a market in Alpuri, near the Swat valley. At least 40 people died.

The attack reminds us that the Swat valley is far from recovered. In fact, the TTP is still able to hit hard and spread quickly. That’s why some analysts are suggesting that however tempting might sound to overhand the control from American contractors to local ones, it is not a wise move for now.

However, as tragic as 40 bodies can be, it’s even more worrying the sensation of insecurity that this brings. Alpuri is supposed to be a safe area under Pakistani control, the place from where the assault on the Swat valley was launched. But truth shows us something radically different. Not only last weekend. Two years ago, the Taliban made an offensive and gained the control of Alpuri police station, for Pakistan’s Army’s shame.

But if it is about shame on the Pakistani Army, then it cannot get bigger than an almost successful assault on their general headquarters in Rawalpindi. During the one-day siege of Pakistan’s “Pentagon”, 19 people died and some other 40 were held hostages for several hours until they were freed in a raid. The attack, apparently, was supposed to be just a diversion to relief the Taliban fighters in the Swat Valley.

The problem in Pakistan is far from solved and it won’t get a solution anytime soon. In fact, it threatens to spread through the region. Israel embassy has issued a warning to all its citizens to avoid travelling into India, for the increasing risk of Mumbai-style bombings.

And let’s face it, early warning the Taliban that the army is about to attack them won’t deter them either.





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After clash season...

A few months after the clashes in Tehran and Urumqi, first sentences to those detained then are now arisen. And they aren’t good news. In fact, nine people have been sentenced to death in the two countries. The motivation for both clashes was different, but the repression and the punishment don’t vary at all.

In the country of the Ayatollahs, at least three people have been sentenced to death. High concerns surround these sentences, especially because is unsure how the testimonies that conducted to them were obtained. Amnesty International and other groups have asked for more transparency in the whole process -with little or no response from Tehran.

The concerns grow when someone looks at the figures given by the government and the ones obtained by other groups. From the two dozen deaths that the government accounts to the two hundred that some organizations count, there are a lot of people missing in between. And for the families of those officially missing, or now under trial, the fear of the worst is always there.

Fear is precisely what many analysts think Ahmadinajad’s government is trying to achieve. By making an example of them, some say, Iranian’s government is trying to silence the opposition movement. And the three current death sentences may be just the beginning. The voices asking for more blood have long been heard since even before the beginning of the conflict.

In China at least the numbers are known. 197 killed and more than 1,600 injured. The controversy is not that much about how many died in the clashes but about how many of them were Han and how many Uighur. That about those already dead. About the ones now sentenced for that, six of them have received death penalties while another one got a life sentence. The names of all of them suggest that they are all Uighur.

Death penalty around the world

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Friday, October 09, 2009

Spy Games in Iran

Nothing is easy when Iran gets in the middle of it. If last week we were told that Ahmadinejad was in fact a Jew, now Iran accuses the US and Saudi Arabia of kidnapping one of his most important scientists in his nuclear program. Let me express my doubts about the first -Ahmadinejad a Jew? Sure, like Hitler a gay- and my curiosity for the second issue…

Here a video from Al Jazeera on it:



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Obama superstar

Like if anything else was necessary to elevate Obama to the heavens, now he has been awarded with the Nobel Peace Prize. The coronation of his Highness Obama has had more to do with the canonization of a (laic) saint than with the recognition to his achievements. That’s why everybody is asking why. And why now.

Because let’s face it. Obama may have promised a new world, but little of that has been unveiled for now. The White House has done small gestures to break with their precedent. It has been, for example, the first time the US has condemned a coup de Ć©tat made by the right and the army in Latin America. Also, tortures and Guantanamo issues are slowly getting better. But as for the rest, all we have are just promises. The general opinion is that the committee in Oslo has decided it betting for his future achievements. But how easy will he get it?

Obama has promised a cut in the nukes, and this is probably the easiest task of all. The Russians are willing to do it, especially because they have already problems to maintain their current stock. But a hypothetical reduction of the two superpowers arsenals wouldn’t have an immediate effect on the world’s stability, quite the contrary: everything would be the same, with more countries like China, closer to equalize the power of Russia and the USA.

The American president has also promised too a new era for the Middle East, but so far the achievements are minimum. His speeches were great, no doubt to that. But far from freezing the settlement construction in the West Bank, he might have to counter a peak in the hostilities. The increasing clashes in Jerusalem plus the outrage after PA’s decision to postpone the vote on Goldstone report -suspectedly in exchange for a permit to Wattaniya mobile operator to start in business- have made the situation way worse than what it was in 2008. Some Israeli media are even predicting a new Intifada.

But the biggest problem for Obama will be Afghanistan. Leaving already Iraq, the now known as the “Obama war” will take yet too much blood and sweat from the ISFOR to develop results. And that outcome will be most likely what will measure Obama’s performance in office back in History. But for now, he has nothing.

His speech writer, however, should have been awarded with the Literature Nobel Prize.

Barack Obama
Photo: Jonas Karlsson

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Thursday, October 08, 2009

Red rules

A compilation of newspapers' frontpages of the day after the big day in China. Red rules. Via GuerraEterna, via Danwei.




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Monday, October 05, 2009

Friendly fire 05/10/09

- Polling round: The Yes wins in Ireland. The Socialist Party wins in Greece. And Rio defeats Chicago, Madrid and Tokio in the race for the Olympics.

- Should Roman Polanski be above the law?

- While waiting for the 2009 Nobel Prizes, here are 2009 Ig Nobel Prizes.

- Seriously, what's wrong with Asia? Earthquakes, floods, tsunamis...

- Israel, in Honduras too? Unlikely.


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Thursday, October 01, 2009

Inside Obama's war

We had already seen the Britons in action in Afghanistan. Now it’s time for the Marines. And for Obama’s worst nightmare: finally, he’s got a war on his own. Afghanistan is, finally, Obama’s war.




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Picture This: China’s Miniskirted Militia

Via Danger Room.



More photos here.


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Irish posters (Lisbon version)

We already knew about Irish predilection for weird posters. These elections weren’t going to be different, and Coir has taken to the streets a whole bunch of colourful lies in posters. Sometimes, it’s difficult to distinguish them from the fake ones. Guess which ones are fake from these:










Solution
Fake: no. 1, 4, 5 and 7.
Real: no. 2, 3 and 6

In the Yes side there is some creativity too. Here is the poster Generation Yes organization -mostly formed by college graduates- has outside the Tripod club:





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The moment of truth for Ireland

Tomorrow is the big day for Ireland, as it’s been sold by the two partisan sides of the battle being fought for almost two years now. Tomorrow, Irish voters will go -for the second time in 16 months- to the polls to decide either if they approve or not a referendum to amend the constitution and therefore, allow their government to sign the Lisbon Treaty. Stakes are at their highest.

In June 2008, a first referendum was already placed and the answer then was a big “No”. A second vote was then placed to secure the approval of the text. This time, Taoiseach Brian Cowen has warned that there won’t be a third referendum if the voters decide again to reject the treaty. It’s then understandable why the battle for the “Yes” and the “No” has been cruel and fearless, especially during the summer and as the D day approached.

The main parties -Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party- are campaigning for the “Yes”. But the situation in the Green Party is a clear mirror of what Irish society is going through. To approve a campaign for the “Yes” it was needed a two third majority vote, and in the assambly where they decided it they got exactly that. Not a vote under or over the two thirds, but exactly that. And that’s how tight the polls are expected to be too tomorrow.

In the “No” side are the Sinn Fein, the Socialist Party and the quite new Libertas Party. This one has been the biggest supporter for the “No” vote. Declan Ganley created the party ahead of the last European Elections as a Europhobic party, mirroring those already operating in Britain. Unfortunately for Mr. Ganley, the party he created failed to secure him a seat in Brussels and he left the party soon afterwards.

For most of the summer, Mr. Ganley has been quiet -too quiet, some may say. This wasn’t his decision. Mr. Ganley has strong ties with US businesses, and his American partners told him to please shut up. So he did it. Until last week when he couldn’t be quiet anymore and warned that Lisbon would be a “catastrophe” for Ireland. Of course, in all his interventions when talking against about Lisbon, he cared a lot to not upset his American partners. Like in this video, where he hides an American flag under the table before an interview with a German TV. All for the sake of the Americans.

In fact, all the American Chamber of Commerce is lobbying for the “Yes”. Last August, the firms in the IFSC (Dublin’s financial center) received an information pack supporting the “Yes” vote. Also, a poll from the Irish Times showed that 90% of the foreign businesses -mostly Americans- with presence in Ireland would encourage their workers to vote “Yes”. For them, a two-speed Europe, one under Lisbon rules and the other one out of them, would have a disadvantaged outcome for Ireland market.

That two-Europes fear is used too by the “Yes” campaign to inspire fear on the voters. There is a huge concern among the Irish establishment that if they fail to pass on Lisbon, Ireland will fall again under the umbrella of influence of the UK. Europe has been traditionally the place to look for Irish nationalists trying to escape the British influence. But if the Tories win in the UK in the next elections and the “No” vote prevails in Ireland, a new front might surge in Brussels that effectively will create two Europes: the mainland, at full gas; and the British Isles, at a slower rate.

But if it is about scaring, then the “No” side is the winner. Summer polls were showing a 54% of voters inclined to the “Yes”. That made many people in the “No” camps get very nervous, especially those in Coir. They are a lobby group, claiming to be independent, but with strong ties with several conservative associations. For instance, Coir operates from the same headquarters as the pro-life groups Youth Defence and the Pro-Life Alliance.

On August 29th, Coir started an aggressive poster campaign, followed by others like the Sinn Fein, supporting the “No” vote. The campaign is so aggressive that they have received huge criticism for the lies included in their posters. But despite that, their campaign seems to be working. Last week, support for the “Yes” vote was 8 points lower than during the summer, at a 46% and going further down.

However, part of it is to blame to the raise of taxes, the cuts and NAMA, the government plan to rescue Irish banks launched after the summer that the Greens have tried to delay until after Lisbon. As it happened in the first referendum, most of the “No” voters are not voting that because of European affairs, but as an internal issue; just to punish the Government -whose two members, the Green Party and Fianna Fail are campaigning for the “Yes”. It looks like the longer this campaign gets, the worse it will be for the “Yes” camp.

As for the final results, tomorrow we will know the outcome. Some Irish voters have already gone to the polls, like the seven inhabitants of Inishfree Island, off Donegal, and their neighbours in Arranmore, Gola, Inishbofin and Tory Islands. And for now, even before the voting starts, and to continue the tradition of Iran and Afghanistan, there are already problems of fraud with the voting cards.

Coir Lisbon posters over the M-50 in Dublin


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Are you afraid? Well, this works in that way. First you do what scares you and it's later when you get the courage
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